NEON-SYNC: Drivers of ecological synchrony across taxa and trophic levels (NEON-SYNC)

PI: Tong Qiu (Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University)

Co-PIs: Allen Hurlbert (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill), John M. Grady (St. Mary’s College of Maryland), Phoebe Zarnetske (Michigan State University)

Populations of different taxa often rise and fall together through time—a pattern called temporal synchrony—but sometimes they move in opposite directions or not at all. These rhythms can either steady ecosystems or make them more vulnerable to sudden change. Using NEON, a monitoring network which tracks many kinds of organisms across U.S. ecosystems, we will measure how strongly pairs of groups (for example, insects and the birds that eat them) move together, and how those patterns depend on species’ traits (like how fast they reproduce or what they eat) and local conditions (climate extremes, productivity, and disturbance such as fire or floods). We will generate tools that provide early warning and practical guidance for conservation—helping managers prioritize vulnerable food-web links and focus monitoring where coordinated declines are most likely under global change.