Beyond Thermal Performance Curves: Predicting Responses to Extreme Heat

Abstract

Temperature shapes biological rates and population dynamics, but linking environmental temperature to biological response remains challenging. The first part of this seminar considers how nonlinear temperature-response relationships can be estimated from observational data, using recent work on temperature and dengue transmission as an example. I will then turn to a different but related problem: predicting the biological consequences of extreme heat. Thermal tolerance depends not only on how hot conditions become, but also on how long organisms are exposed. The Thermo Tolerate working group aims to synthesize laboratory thermal-tolerance data, fit time-dependent tolerance surfaces, apply them to realistic temperature records, and test whether predicted physiological stress corresponds to observed population declines. The broader goal is to connect experimental physiology with ecological responses to increasingly extreme and variable climates.

Speaker Bio

Kelsey Lyberger is an Assistant Professor at Arizona State University. She is an evolutionary ecologist interested in understanding how organisms and populations respond to environmental change. Much of her current research focuses on mosquitoes and how temperature shapes their population dynamics, range expansions, and the spread of vector-borne disease.

Join us in person in SEEC S372 or on Zoom.